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Latest industrial control chip suppliers spot delivery and price trends

发布时间：2023-10-26 11:27:59

According to the latest observation, from the beginning of 2023 to the present, the industry growth rate from "heaven" to "purgatory", perhaps, for industrial chip manufacturers, a new round of reshuffle has just begun?

Inventory: Led by TI, industrial chip inventory hit a new high

According to the financial reports of the world's 11 industrial control chip head manufacturers, since 2022Q2, the average inventory of industrial control chips has shown an upward trend, and the inventory increase since the end of last year is particularly obvious, showing that the current global industrial control industry has entered the inventory adjustment stage. Taking the leading manufacturer TI as an example, its inventory turnover days increased from 134 days in 2022Q4 to 179 days in 2023Q1, far higher than its regular inventory level of 90-110 days.

Chart: Inventory turnover days of 11 industrial chip manufacturers in the world (unit: days)

Source: Wind, annual reports of each company, Core Myna collation

Specifically, the average inventory turnover days of industrial chip manufacturers reached 127 days, more than the conventional inventory water level of about 85-100 days. Obviously, since last year, the oversupply of the industrial control industry has expanded, the inventory risk has increased, and the industry prosperity has declined.

Chart: Average inventory turnover days of 11 industrial chip manufacturers in the world (unit: days)

Source: Wind, annual reports of each company, Core Myna collation

From the 11 industrial chip manufacturers inventory cycle average growth rate and TI data comparison, 2022Q4 is the node of the industry inventory rise, to the current industry is still in the inventory rise stage, combined with the downstream demand of the industrial control industry research and judgment, the future trend of the industry is still a great uncertainty.

Chart: Since the global industrial chip manufacturers inventory cycle average sequential growth trend

Source: Core Mynah collation

Delivery time: Analog/MCU down, FPGA up

1. MCU: The overall downward trend is obvious

Overall, the average delivery time and price of industrial control/general class MCU products in 2023Q2 decreased significantly, and the delivery time of most products continued to improve, and the price returned to normal.

From the data of head industrial MCU manufacturers such as TI, ST, Infineon, Microchip, NXP and RENESAS, the delivery time of 8-bit MCU and 32-bit MCU shows a shortening trend, and the price is gradually moving toward the normal price. However, the supply of automotive series MCUS is still limited.

Chart: Delivery and price trend of major industrial control/general MCU manufacturers in 2023Q2

Source: Fuchang Electronics, annual reports, core Myna collation

2. Simulation: The industry may fall into a price war

Specifically, TI's PMIC products were once the "star" products in the spot market in 2021-2022, but at present, the delivery time of most industrial-grade series PMIC has been significantly shortened, and the market price has gradually returned to normal levels. For example, the PMIC represented by TPS53513RVER fell from the peak of 1,000 yuan to about 10 yuan at present. In general, the current price of PMIC is still somewhat high from the regular price, and the industry estimates that the price in the second half of the year still has room for a large decline.

Chart: The delivery time and price trend of main industrial control/general simulation products in 2023Q2

Source: Fuchang Electronics, annual reports, core Myna collation

3, FPGA: delivery improvement price is high

FPGA, as one of the typical application products in the industrial control market, has improved from the delivery time of the leading manufacturers, and the shortest time is shortened to about 20 weeks, but the price fluctuation is relatively small, and the overall demand growth remains high. Taking AMD (Xilinx) as an example, although the delivery time of its Spartan 6 series in the first half of the year has improved, the price increase is still as high as 8%-25%, and in the case of no alternative products at the terminal, customers are willing to accept futures quotes.

Chart: Delivery time and price trend of main industrial FPGA products in 2023Q2

Source: Annual reports, Fuchang Electronics, core Myna collate

The end of revenue expansion, survival of the fittest

In summary, core Mog comprehensive global 11 industrial control head manufacturers revenue data, 2020Q4-2022Q1 is the peak of industrial control industry manufacturers performance, 2022Q2-2022Q4 industry gradually entered the downturn, but still maintained a high growth rate, the first half of 2023 entered the trough, the downward trend is obvious. This may be the industry leader TI fully lowered the price of analog chips in the China-led market and joined the "price volume".

Chart: 2020Q1-2023Q1 Average revenue growth of head industrial control manufacturers list

Source: Wind, core Mynah collation

In the short term, demand is the key to the sustainable development of current industrial control manufacturers. From the analysis of the main application market of industrial control, the demand of traditional industries such as petrochemical, logistics and metal processing is slowing down, consumer electronics is difficult to return to the peak, the automotive industry is in the stage of change, the release of new capacity in the superimposed industrial control chip industry, the demand/price of industrial control products represented by MCU and simulation will continue to decline in the short term (1-3 quarters).

In the long run, with the rise of lithium, photovoltaic, energy storage and other new energy, the new incremental demand brought by electric vehicles, the macroeconomic environment is picking up, and the Q4 industrial control chip industry is expected to pick up.